Revealing How U.S. Foreign Policy Affects Taiwanese Public Support for Independence

A survey of responses to hypothetical Chinese aggression shows that Taiwanese support for independence is conditional and cost-sensitive

The United States has long maintained strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan to deter escalation by both Beijing and Taipei. A survey of Taiwanese citizens by Incheon National University researchers shows that support for de jure independence is low and conditional, shaped by U.S. policy and Chinese coercion. Clearer U.S. security commitments raise support under limited pressure but fail once China escalates militarily. U.S. leaders should therefore avoid making explicit commitments to defend—or not defend—Taiwan.

Image title: Taiwanese Independence Activists are a Small but Vocal Minority

Image caption: Most Taiwanese people prefer the status quo over independence. Support for de jure independence is highly conditional on the nature of Chinese aggression and the clarity of U.S. commitments to defend Taiwan.

Image credit: "Taiwan independence movement" by Joe Jones from Flickr

Image source link: https://www.flickr.com/photos/17925477@N00/2337429046

License type: CC BY-SA 2.0

Usage restrictions: Credit must be given to the creator. Adaptations must be shared under the same terms.

Since the 1970s, the United States has maintained a position of strategic ambiguity with regard to Taiwan’s security, by not opposing Beijing’s “One China” principle but also enacting laws to enable Taiwan’s self-defense. This position seems to have deterred Chinese military attacks on Taiwan while also discouraging pro-independence movements within Taiwan. In recent times, Taiwanese political leaders are moving towards more independent foreign relations, whereas Chinese leaders have reaffirmed their stance on reunification. For its part, the United States (U.S.) has also increased official contacts between Washington and Taipei.

Given these changing stances in all three nations, Assistant Professor Kyung Suk Lee from Incheon National University and Associate Professor Daekwon Son from Sogang University, South Korea, set out to study the effect of U.S. strategic commitments on Taiwanese people’s perspectives regarding independence. Their findings were made available online on May 27, 2024, and were published in Volume 30 of the Journal of Chinese Political Science in December, 2025.

“We lack rigorous empirical evidence on how different U.S. policy postures—strategic ambiguity, clarity, or abandonment—influence Taiwanese public support for independence versus unification,” says Dr. Lee. To address this gap, the authors surveyed 900 Taiwanese people and recorded their support for independence in response to six scenarios: two kinds of Chinese aggression (coercion by military build-up or attacks on Taiwan) and three U.S. strategic positions in response (ambiguity or defense of Taiwan or abandonment of Taiwan).

Most respondents were in favor of maintaining the status quo of de facto independence without international recognition, regardless of the scenario (73% under coercion, 68% under military strikes). In the face of Chinese coercion, U.S. commitment to defense increased support for independence, while abandonment decreased support. However, after Chinese military strikes, U.S. ambiguity increased support for independence, while both alternatives reduced support.

These findings have significant value for foreign policy. First, the Taiwanese public prioritizes peace and stability, and does not want independence at the cost of military conflict with China. Second, clarity of U.S. foreign policy has opposing effects on support for independence depending on the nature of Chinese aggression.

In this changing political climate, leaders in Washington must clearly understand that Taiwanese support for independence, while significant, is highly conditional and pragmatic. “One policy avenue that the U.S. could contemplate is a conditional form of strategic clarity—that is, offering security assurances to Taiwan solely in response to unprovoked Chinese aggression while refraining from intervention in the event of Chinese attacks triggered by Taiwan’s claim to independence,” suggests Dr. Lee, adding that any other clarifying position risks destabilizing the Taiwan Strait.

Reference

About Assistant Professor Kyung Suk Lee

Dr. Kyung Suk Lee is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Studies at Incheon National University, South Korea. Dr. Lee will join Yonsei University, Graduate School of International Studies, in the upcoming 2026 Spring semester. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from Texas A&M University. His research interests include international security, nuclear and alliance politics, and public and elite opinion on global affairs. Dr. Lee’s work has been published in top peer-reviewed journals such as Contemporary Security Policy, International Studies Quarterly, The Washington Quarterly, and International Interactions.